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The following is the opinion of financial experts about the trend of cash flow to the market, the movement of the VN-Index in the future.
Buying shares is still a lot of opportunities
(Bui Nguyen Khoa, Market Market Leader, BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company)
The market hit a low of around 900 points which should have rebounded but last week's session showed that psychology was still weak. When the VN-Index moves to the level of 930, a lack of money investors indicates that buyers are not ready for a new rally.
With such general sentiment, the market was forced to re-test the bottom 885-900 points. In my opinion, the market may not be able to lose this level but will recover a little sideways. In the near future, domestic investors will focus on the National Assembly, information related to CPTPP.
And especially the meeting of President Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of this month. This event will not only affect the Vietnamese stock market but also the world market.
Anyway, with Vietnamese P / E more than 16 times and if I delete a large number of shares, many shares in my statistics have P / E 11-12 times. Meanwhile, business results for the third quarter of 2018 are still growing positively, so that the current share purchase still has many opportunities.
In addition, the general market margin has returned to the beginning of the year so it will be difficult to show a strong decline so the market can fall deeper.
Can VN-Index hold 900 levels?
(Mr. Nguyen Xuan Binh, Director of the Vietnam Vietnam Research Center, Securities Company)
Because the VN-Index is often distorted recently, some investors prefer surfing or derivative trading has changed to refer to VN30 instead of VN-Index.
In my opinion, the market has a weak recovery and is only suitable for trading activities to reduce capital costs. There is still a high probability that VN30 will return to the level of 820-830 when new money will enter the market. This zone is in accordance with the VN-Index which can fall to 850-860 points.
In the short term, factors such as macroeconomic growth and business results are positive but this story is not new to general market sentiment. Meanwhile, negative factors such as trade wars, interest rate pressures, exchange rates … have not been fully evaluated.
Even buying transactions from foreign investors today does not bring peace of mind to domestic investors. Even though the week has bought nearly 330 billion net, this may still be a short-term trading activity, not enough to reverse the trend sold due to the impact of trade and the Fed raising interest rates.
In the short term, the VN-Index can hold 900 points, VN30 needs to maintain the level of 880 points, otherwise the index will fall sharply to the resistance threshold mentioned above.
Why is cash flow weak?
(Mr. Phan Dung Khanh, Investment Advisor, Kim Eng Vietnam Securities)
Recently, Vietnam's stock market was less linked to the US stock market. For example, in the middle of last week, US stocks rose 500 points but Vietnamese stocks almost rose slightly while many people predicted a sharp increase. While market liquidity is worse, this shows that now the good news is that bad liquidity is also bad, worse liquidity is a good trend because cash flow is clearly not.
In my opinion, the market is likely to recover but the technical nature is short-term, but not sustainable recovery. The risk here is assuming good news, this news does not affect the market. In terms of the number of companies reporting good business results in the third quarter, the profits of the banking group increased sharply, but did not affect the market. Affecting the oil and gas group …
Weak cash flows have many reasons, but one of the main reasons is the entry of money into the US. The Fed tightens monetary power, raises interest rates, December will continue to rise again. It is expected to increase once in December, three times in 2019 and once in 2020, but it is not expected to know how much and how much more, depending on the situation.
If the trade war is positive, it will have a positive effect on the market, but if the market is 100% bad, then the bad will drop to 60-70%. In fact, people are worried about trade wars, but the financial world cares more about money wars. The Chinese central bank must use monetary measures to support the economy, which affect other countries, competing to make other national currencies fall. Other countries must raise interest rates to fight the US and China. If the trade war is relieved, China's policy cuts mean better. But the problem is that only China and the Fed are left. So I think the positive part is, that is, cash flow is increasing.
The VN-Index can adjust to the 900 point threshold, its depth can be 850 or less. After that the market will have a relatively relatively slow recovery phase but because the seller is sold, not the actual cash flow to buy.
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