The view of the world dollar has been well received by many domestic and foreign experts.
World USD declines
Last week, Morgan Stanley Bank said the dollar's momentum had ended and it was time to sell the currency. The global head of Morgan Stanley foreign exchange strategy, Hans Redeker, wrote in a note: "We believe the dollar has peaked at current levels. The dollar may weaken because of yield spreads, falling stock prices and government bond yields are beginning to decrease due to deflationary pressures and prices oil falls. "
This view was also supported by Bernard Lapointe, Head of Analysis of Viet Dragon Securities. In a recent note, experts said: "The dollar's momentum may have ended," investors seem to have fled the dollar. One reason is that the superiority of the US economy to the whole world may have reached its peak.
Dollar-denominated interest rate swaps have been fully reflected in the greenback and will decline as the Federal Reserve is no longer too hawkish to support rising interest rates. last month. FED officials have indicated that they will not want to "raise" the Federal Fund Fund rate at the current pace (likely to be four times in 2018).
This surplus has been fully reflected in the dollar. The flow of capital into dollar-denominated assets seems to have stopped. SSI Retail Research's global capital flow report for this month also shows that capital inflows from the market and the destination of the US and Western Europe are Asian markets.
The global economy enters the final stage of the growth cycle. Bernard Laponte believes that the dollar has peaked against many currencies, including the Japanese yen. "One of the factors driving the dollar in the past 10 months is the departure from the view that corporate tax cuts in the United States will cause repatriation of money from abroad to the United States. It's almost finished. If so, the White House and Trump might be inclined to think the dollar will help the US economy by 2019. "Thus, Bernad Lapointe recommends selling dollars and buying some coins in Asia.
Reduce pressure on exchange rates
This will help reduce the pressure on the VND / USD exchange rate. As part of one of the factors that caused the exchange rate to increase during the past, according to experts, it was explained that the performance of the world market, especially with the increase in the Fed's interest rates. HSBC experts also commented: "Domestic interest rates, pressure still exists when the Fed shows that the roadmap for raising interest rates is not over. In fact, in that year, some time, some traders were free to trade in the VND / USD exchange rate movements on world markets.
In addition, interest rates on the interbank market remain high in the long term also supporting exchange rates and analysts predict the upward trend will continue from now until the Chinese New Year. As a result, many credit institutions have raised their deposit rates on the market to ensure liquidity at the end of the year.
The exchange rate is generally supported by many factors as mentioned above with the trade balance from the beginning of the year to the first half of November a surplus of almost $ 6.3 billion. But one thing to keep in mind is that during the 2008-2012 period when the dollar fell sharply, the VND / USD exchange rate rose from VND18,000 to around VND22,000 before retreating to VND20,000.
The future exchange rate situation may depend more on demand and supply in the economy. In fact, in 2018, the exchange rate was stable because the Bank of State aggressively sold dollars to intervene in the market. Another factor that supports the VND / USD exchange rate is the fact that the RMB against the US dollar falls below the 7.0 level – an important psychological threshold. Financial Times statistics show that People & # 39; s Bank of China has sold around $ 32 billion to intervene in the Chinese foreign exchange market.
Regarding prospects, Standard Chartered Bank experts estimate the exchange rate will fluctuate around 23,400 VND / USD by the end of 2018. Ho Tien Ly, technical analyst of Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company "The USD index will likely outperform 98. USD. The index will continue to fluctuate in the channel to over 94-98 in the future. " Regarding the VND / USD exchange rate, the technical trend is still bullish. The RSI stays in the overbought zone at a high level but the interbank level has not increased significantly after the midterm rally. "The exchange rate will continue to move sideways, waiting for new fluctuations," Li said.