Investing.com – The Russian market on Wednesday showed, as they say, "multi-directional movements". Despite the decline in the stock market index that lasted two days before and the lack of news that could change this trend, both rose. increased by 1.81%, index – by 1.35%. Shares of most of the major participants in the index, including Sberbank, remained red, but Gazprom (MCX 🙂 enlightened the overall depressed picture: finance director Andrei Kruglov said that by the end of 2018, dividends in rubles per share could change to "double digits".
Based on the fact that two years before, the company only paid a little more than 8 rubles. per share, we are talking about dividend growth of at least 25% – and quotes up 7.66% upwards, tearing up the index dynamics of the overall market situation. "The index brings Gazprom to information about the possibility of increasing dividends. Sberbank (MCX :), the most liquid securities from the market, becomes cheaper. On the upside, there are a few more papers, but this is more likely to be volatility, which is not fundamental to the index or for themselves. Without news about Gazprom, today's index will be zero at best, "said Roman Ermakov, head of the department handling at Lanta Bank.
The fact that generous dividend policies from many Russian companies are often explained by business development problems and the inability to invest effectively in increasing the value of their own assets does not bother investors. And it remains only to state that the stronger the growth in the promise of dividends, the stronger the correction will be in the reality of their payments.
From the explanation above, it is clear that the negative dynamics of the ruble exchange rate on index behavior can hardly influence. In the first half of the day, the dollar rose quite confident to 67.4 rubles. and at this level lasts most of the day. The reason for the weakening of the ruble is enough. First of all, Bank of Russia chairman Elvira Nabiullina said that the Central Bank will continue purchasing currencies on the open market starting January 15. "Perhaps the market reaction is excessive – no decision has been announced yet, but only a statement of intention, and the Central Bank has promised to act cautiously and not create a negative effect on the ruble," said Nordea Bank Chief Analyst Denis Davydov. – Rubel also remained under moderate pressure because of political risks, until there was a strong Western statement about the incident in the Kerch Strait, but talked about it all the time, and in the second half of the day, the Latvian Foreign Minister announced discussions with ambassadors of the Union countries Europe. new steps against Russia. And the oil market remains weak: price dynamics are not pronounced, and crude oil reserves in the United States last week rose by 3.5 million more barrels, that is, the statistics frankly did not support price increases. "
The dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices is a debatable question. But, in any case, the forecast announced by the Ministry of Economic and Trade Development, according to which Russia in 2019 will not only not diminish, but, conversely, increase oil production, should not play for the benefit of the Russian currency. However, according to Denis Davydov, the situation is not so easy: "Actions by OPEC + to maintain balance are still possible, and sanctions against Iran will eventually appear to a greater extent. The indulgences given by the United States to several countries after the imposition of sanctions are not given forever, but only for 180 days, and even if they are renewed, there is still a decrease in procurement. As a result, Iranian oil exports in the first quarter of 2019 could fall from 1.5 million to 1 million barrels. per day, "he noted.
One trigger that can change the background of the news is a meeting between US and Russian presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in early December. However, on Wednesday night, Moscow time, Donald Trump, in an interview with The Washington Post, cited Russia's actions during the "aggression" incident, which he "disliked" and said that according to the results of reports from the national security service, he could cancel the meeting at all. Nevertheless, the Putin government representative later said that they did not know about the cancellation and they continued to prepare for the meeting as before.
Already after the closing of the main trading session, the dollar exchange rate fell sharply on increasing volume: at 20.00 it fell to 66.9. The reason for this was the speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said that a gradual increase in interest rates brought balanced risks and they were "just slightly below the neutral level". Investors' hopes that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hikes next year have increased along with fears of slowing economic growth. However, the leap was short lived so far: at 10:30 a.m. Moscow time, the dollar rose by 5 kopecks again.
(Text prepared by Daniel Zhelobanov)