The analytical department Raiffeisenbank predicts that by the end of the year, the dollar can surpass the psychological mark of 70 rubles, according to RBC.
Bank specialists stress that while maintaining the value of one barrel of current oil and the value of the national currency, the current account balance in November-December must be around $ 12.5 billion and this amount will not be enough to pay Russia to external debt (the amount is $ 14.3 billion).
"Given that the large current account balance as such does not lead to the strengthening of the ruble, it can be concluded that capital outflows are not due to an increase in foreign currency assets by banks, but by other factors," said the forecast.
In the early fall, the Central Bank did not buy dollars and euros on the open market because of a serious jump in the exchange rate of the national currency, and buying dollars created demand for them, which further weakened the ruble. In contrast, the Central Bank provides the Ministry of Finance with the currency of its gold reserves.
In turn, the first deputy chairman of the economic policy committee of the Federation Council Sergey Kalashnikov in an interview with a correspondent Federal News Office He quickly convinced Russia and said that all predictions were "intentionally made to reduce or increase exchange rates".
"We have speculative currency markets, so predictions work to fall or to appreciate. Raiffeisenbank is no exception in this case, this is a well-known player in the currency exchange, so I won't listen to such predictions.
As for the real sign, everything can be there, although the general trend shows that no changes will occur in the next three months. In addition, this is not at all related to oil prices, this is related to other factors that I do not want to talk about, so they do not make their own predictions, "the senator explained.
At the same time, a member of the Federation Council added that three more or less stable months would be followed by January, as long as that time was worth expecting a decline in the value of foreign currencies.
"I want to convince Russians, January is always the month of the fall of the dollar. This is due to the fact that you need to pay taxes and companies that save their money in foreign currencies are forced to sell it to pay bills. Therefore, January is always the month of the fall of the dollar. That is what I can guarantee, "concluded Kalashnikov.
Remember, chief economist and deputy head of VEB Andrey Klepach previously reported that the ruble exchange rate in 2019 could be greatly weakened under the influence of existing and expected anti-Russian sanctions.