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[일문일답] "If there are no external disasters, the economic slowdown will not increase"


Enter 2019.11.15 13:41
| Revision 2019.11.15 14:19

The Ministry of Strategy and Finance said that 'Low' Removed from a comprehensive economic assessment of the recent economic trends (aka Green Book) in November 2019. That means no. & # 39;

Hong Min-seok, head of economic analysis at the Sejong City press conference, said in a related briefing at the Sejong City Press Center this morning. "I don't think there will be a risk of further decline if there are no major problems in the future." "If he sees a global upward trend, he will make a policy effort to find an upward momentum in our economy."

However, he was concerned that the removal of the "slow" phrase in the Green Book was interpreted as a change in the game's awareness of the book. Regarding the question that the removal of phrases means that our economy is currently under, meaning that the change in phrases is 'economy bottom down' and 'exports and investment are not slow.' No. The third quarter growth rate is also below the potential growth rate, and the term "constraint" is used to explain this aspect. "

On April 15, Hong Min-suk, head of the Economic Analysis Division, announced the latest economic trends in November (Green Book).

Mr. Hong continued to say, "We hope our economy will improve next year as the global economy and the semiconductor market improve next year," he said. "The problem is the government is trying to find momentum." I will show a positive number. "

The following is an interview with Hong Min-seok, Director of Economic Analysis, Ministry of Strategy and Finance

-The lack of expression used for seven consecutive months is lost, but in terms of content, export investment has declined.

"Meanwhile, expressions of lethargy continue to be used for seven consecutive months, and the phrase" limiting growth "is the most accurate representation of the Korean economy recently. This month, physical indicators are released until the third quarter. Gross production (GDP), a trend industrial activities, etc., I think that is the most accurate expression. "

-Does the game hit the floor?

"We did not change the 'slack' to 'constraint' because we think the economy is at its lowest point, and we are not saying that exports and investment are not slow." In terms of slowing exports and investment, especially investment "Construction investment is the biggest influence."

If so, why did you turn it into an obstacle?

"Please understand that this is a modification for clarity. When the phrase "slow" appears in the Green Book, it is often interpreted as lethargy for the whole economy, even though it is an assessment of certain indicators. There is also concern about whether it will be desirable to continue the expression of lethargy. So, in a comprehensive assessment, we clearly state that certain indicators, such as exports and investment, are declining, and that these factors limit our economic growth. "

-Includes some indicators such as mining industry production and investment facilities, the main consumption indicator is negative. Are you weak looking for a change of expression?

"The overall economic index has not deteriorated, but investment in facilities has also been shown to decline. This is reflected comprehensively."

-Is it close to KDI's prospect that next year's economy will gradually improve?

"(KDI) states that there will be no further decline if there are no problems in external conditions.
We hope to be better next year. The problem is trying to find momentum for the government to give a positive look. In that direction, I am thinking about economic policy next year. "

-Do you think it's at the bottom of the game?

"I cannot say clearly that the economy has hit rock bottom, but I do not think there will be an additional decline factor if there are no major problems in the future. If there is a flow of improvement, our economy will also seek momentum for improvement. The government will make efforts to that. "

-The cost of electricity in GDP is 3Q lower than 2Q, and investment in facilities is still falling. However, the word sluggish, used in the second quarter analysis, was changed to an improvement based on the third quarter.

I changed the expression to an obstacle.

"GDP has fallen from 1% in the second quarter to 0.4% in the third quarter," he said. "However, the sluggishness of equipment investment has declined compared to the first and second quarters. However, construction investment has not been so." I can not see that. "

The numbers keep on decreasing, and it can be shown that changing the expression "slow" doesn't make sense.

"GDP declined in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. However, the overall industrial production index was higher in the third quarter. There may be differences in direction from each other." The indicator may be misleading because it worsens, and there is regret that focus is always "slow for several months" even when the phrase is used for seven consecutive months. "

Market consensus is that this is not the time to change the perception of indicators. Is it in front of the government?

"Expressions of lethargy were conveyed to the market excessively, and that is the symbolism of the market consensus and the Green Book that kept it for seven months while worrying about its reaction. But at one point, I thought a more accurate expression was needed."

-Is the game going forward?

"I will do my best to make it better"

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