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Here comes another nightmare Spread: why come back?


You write Spreads, you read nightmares. A term, which is unknown to most people in the past, which we learned from the last period get used to almost every day, back into existence special observed right at these hours after minimum touching in mid-September a 132 basis points: after yesterday's fire became 178 basis points also related to concerns about government resilience, shaken by the Ilva case, today fell back BTp-Bund is spreading, reach around 170 points. But the fact is that The thermometer is back and many wonder why.

According to Sole24Ore, in an article written by Morya Longo, three main reasons: the first, in fact, is related to the current phase political uncertainty with the Ilva "bomb" that shook waters – has been moved – from new executives where tension has not diminished internal and prick between Pd and CinqueStelle on more than one problem.

POLITICAL UNCEPTION – In the background of consideration: now everyone knows that Government Count Bis has put down its weapons, ignoring rhetoric without the euro, is more valued instead. Salvini This also explains why Government weaknesses weigh on spread: in terms of initial selection, the road seems to be marked by statements that are now taken for granted by Middle right in the Northern League traction. a change of scenery which will overhaul the card on the table, turning it back on in a flash fear and worry investor.

GERMAN FACTORS – Opening by companies also burdens the spread Germany for European guarantees on bank deposits. In the positive news itself, except that on a German plate proposes partners for this concession, that is banks reduce national government bonds on their balance sheets.

TIERING BOOMERANG – The third reason is technical, as underlined by an economic newspaper: "When Mario Draghi cuts Bank deposit interest rates in ECB (at -0.50%), introducing a mechanism that reduces bank pain for this step. that "tiering": In fact the negative rate does not apply to all deposits at the ECB, but an exclusion system has been introduced.

We are in vexata quaestio. It reads: "in the case of Italian banks – counting Antonio Cesarano at Intermonte – they will come exempt from negative deposit interest of 90 billion (in addition to the required 15 billion reserves).

"For Italian banks this is a potential window of arbitration," he explained. They can borrow funds at negative prices on the interbank spot / term market, and then keep it on the ECB at zero level. In this way they will benefit from the differential, but will drain liquidity by increasing the level of p / t and consequently BTp ". translated: the boomerang effect is around the corner.

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