2018Year12China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
And the index of non-manufacturing business activity dropped by one liter
——Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician from the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted China's Manager Purchasing Index for December 2018
As of December 31, 2018, the National Statistics Service Industry Research Center and the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this case, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician from the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained.
In December 2018, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, where the production index was 50.8%, and continued to remain within the expansion range, the index of non-manufacturing business activity was 53, 8%, up 0.4 from last month. The percentage of expansion has been accelerated. The comprehensive PMI output index is 52.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. It continues to be in a boom zone, indicating that the overall production and operations of Chinese companies continue to grow.
First, the manufacturing purchasing manager's index fell again
By 2018, the average manufacturing PMI is 50.9%, indicating that the manufacturing industry as a whole maintains growth throughout the year. Recently, due to intensification of friction in international trade and slowing global economic growth, the development environment of China's manufacturing industry has changed steadily. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and prosperity weakened. Main features of this month: First, downward pressure on market demand has increased, and companies are expected to be cautious. The new order index was 49.7%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the expected index of production and operations was 52.7%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, both of which were lows during that year. At the same time, several industries are gradually entering the production season, and the company is cautious about market expectations recently. Second, because of factors such as more external environment variables and slower internal demand, the recent boom in imports and exports is lower. The new export order index and import index were 46.6% and 45.9%, down 0.4 and 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and all remained below the critical point. Third, because of the large fluctuations in prices of some international commodities, the price index continues to fall. The main raw material purchasing price index and the ex-factory price index were year lows of 44.8% and 43.3%, down 5.5 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the industry for processing raw materials for oil and coke and ferrous metal smelting and the industry for purchasing raw material price indexes and ex-factory price indices both below the low level of 35.0%, the decline was clearer. Fourth, all PMIs of different scale companies all fall. The PMI of large companies is 50.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, slightly above the critical point, PMIs for small and medium-sized companies are 48.4% and 48.6%, down 0.7 and 0 respectively , 6 percentage points from the previous month.
At the same time, it should be noted that even though manufacturing PMIs have dropped, production has continued to grow and corporate cost pressures have been reduced. This month's production index is 50.8% and continues to be in the expansion range. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the production index of 14 industries was above the critical point, among them, manufacturing industries such as processed tea for food and beverages, special equipment, and aerospace equipment for railway vessels above 57.0%, and the boom rate increases. According to the survey results, the proportion of companies reflecting high raw material costs and high logistical costs this month was 37.3% and 28.6%, down by 2.0 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, both of which were recent lows.
Second, the index of non-manufacturing business activity has increased steadily
In 2018, the index of non-manufacturing business activities averaged 54.4%, and the whole year remained at a relatively high level. In December, the index of non-manufacturing business activity was 53.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and non-manufacturing expansion has recently increased.
The service industry maintains stable growth. The service industry business activity index was 52.3%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Above the critical point, the service industry continued its rapid growth. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the business activity index of 13 industries is in the expansion range, and service industry fundamentals are generally good. Among them, the index of business activities in railway transportation, telecommunications, banking, insurance, and other financial industries is located in a high range of more than 60.0%, and this industry has achieved rapid growth, but road transportation, postal, catering, securities, real estate and other industries are located in the contraction zone, business The total amount has decreased. From market expectations, the service industry business activity expectation index was 60.2%, returning to a high level of 60.0%. Among them, the index expected from business activities in railroad transportation, air transportation, catering, tourism and other industries increased by a large margin, indicating that with the New Year's Spring Festival approach, market demand for industry is closely related to home consumption stairs and trips will be gradually released. Hope is generally optimistic.
The construction industry has increased significantly. The business activity index was 62.6%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, and rose to a high level. The growth rate of the construction industry has accelerated, indicating that the recent implementation of a number of policy steps to promote infrastructure investment development stable has appeared. In terms of market demand and expectations, the construction industry's new orders index was 56.5%, which was in the economic range higher than 56.0% for the third consecutive month Market demand maintained stable and fast growth, business activity expectation index is 64.5%, which continues to be at a high level. The interval is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, and the company's trust in industrial development is increasing.
Third, comprehensivePMIThe output index continues to grow
By 2018, the average PMI output index is 53.7%, indicating that the overall production and operations of Chinese companies maintain stable growth throughout the year. In December, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.6%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. It continues to be in a boom zone. Overall production and operating activities of Chinese companies continue to grow, and the expansion rate slows. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which is a comprehensive PMI output index, are 50.8% and 53.8%, down one liter quarter to quarter, and the index of non-manufacturing business activities is 3.0 percentage points higher than manufacturing production index. The role of non-manufacturing in economic growth is increasingly being increased.
(Editor: Song Yuhui)