Brazil: the country where everyone bet in 2019, at least in the economy


Jair Bolsonaro became president on 1 January and accepted a country that was hit by poverty, unemployment and other social problems. The country's economy has experienced ups and downs since the latest research from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, in 2014: low growth, slowdown and recession, slowly recovering in 2017. Now, it is estimated that actions in the largest economy in Latin America will be more performance measures good in this region this year.

Brazil is a future country, or at least 2019, according to money managers.

Shares in Latin America's biggest economy will be the best in the region this year, according to 68 percent of investors surveyed who attended the annual Banco Santander CEO conference in Latin America.

Another January survey by Merrill Lych, Bank of America, showed that around 90 percent of respondents expect the country's stock indicators to end the year above current levels.

Brazil's benchmark stock index, Ibovespa, has risen 8 percent this year led by state-owned companies, amid investors betting that the new government will fulfill its market-friendly promises to privatize the company and move forward with pension reform. The index is currently trading at a record level, and the average strategist's estimate is that he will close 2019 at 105,950, 11 percent higher than the current level.

The Merrill Lynch survey found that 91 percent of participants believed that the long awaited pension reform would be approved around 2019, and one third of investors expect it to occur in the first half of this year. Nearly half of those surveyed by Santander expect approval in the second half of this year.

Second option

Argentina, which will go through one year of presidential elections, is considered the second best choice by Santander respondents, while 25 percent of those surveyed by Merrill Lynch expect investors to increase their participation in the country, and no one has reduced them.

The S & P benchmark has risen 15 percent this year in dollars, the biggest among the major indices, after losing more than 50 percent of its value in 2018.

Investors in Latin American stocks will focus more on reform and political development in the region. They were followed by trade tensions between China and the US, global raw material prices and, finally, the Federal Reserve's rate of increase, according to Santander surveys.


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