Published on December 31, 2018 |
by Paul Fosse
December 31, 2018 by Paul Fosse
The short general answer to the question in the title is, "Yes." I bought my model 3 months ago and like it. You can read more about it in my author's archive. But there are other things that need to be considered and people have different factors to consider. So read on for nuances and some considerations about Tesla.
Every week, it looks like we think Tesla will run out of Model 3 cars that week. But the company continued to increase production and appeared to work through order deposits a few weeks ago. People who still have reservations fall into 3 categories:
- They are waiting for a cheaper car ($ 35,000 car) or for leasing that will be offered in the current Model 3.
- They are in a part of the world where you cannot get Model 3. It's everywhere except the US and Canada.
- They change their mind or something appears so they can't buy a car now.
So, even though Tesla still gets several thousand new orders every week from new people who find the Model 3, it's not enough to sell the automaker, even though the US federal tax credit is cut in half for Tesla buyers in 2 days focusing people's minds.
Availability of cars
Although I hope Tesla will sell the inventory this week, it seems that the availability has changed slightly from what I found last week. The local sales office told me that Tesla has a group of cars ready for ordering and delivery on the same day, as long as I can be a little flexible on the options I want.
I checked with Tesla in Tampa, St. Louis, and Denver. Cars sell fast, but not fast enough to sell out. In general, I have asked them to send me 2 or 3 links for a friend that I helped decide to buy, and when I check the link a few days later, they usually die (which I think means a car) is sold). When I contacted the dealer and asked for more links, they found 2 or 3 more cars that met the specifications I requested.
What I'm guessing from this is that they have a large inventory they're working on or they can refill at least as fast as they sell. After the tax credit was reduced on Tuesday, although I knew they would start allocating a lot of production to Europe and China, they would not want sales to fall too much in the US, so I think that would mean they would attract one or more "demand levers."
Back in October, we issued a good article about all the ways that Tesla can increase the demand for its cars. Some of the levers have been pulled, such as geographical expansion and the new Mid Range battery pack. Others, such as matching tax credits, Supercharging free for long periods of time, and free wall chargers are possible but will cut the gross margin when they are determined to remain profitable.
Many people in the US will be happy to see the Standard Battery range coming out now (and they are doing a good job of keeping the Mid Range battery secret until release), but the website still says standard batteries are 4 to 6 months away. Note that 4 months ago the site said it was 6 to 9 months away, so I thought it would be impossible for them to open an order for this week's Standard Range battery. In addition, it's only been a month since Elon Musk sent an email to all employees who said it would cost $ 38,000 to build a $ 35,000 car, and asked the employee to help find ways to cut money from each of the approximately 10,000 parts and processes and processes needed to unite Model 3.
My bet is that leasing and / or subscriptions are the best way for Tesla to reduce the total monthly costs to new owners without taking hit margins some other options do. It was also exactly 7 months since Elon estimated we would have Leasing in 6 to 9 months. The reason for not offering it at that time was cash flow (which was quite negative 6 months ago). Cash flow is greatly increasing now, so it shouldn't be a big problem anymore.
So, what is the answer to the question I submitted in the title of this article? Should you buy now or you have to wait to see what Tesla will announce in 2019?
I can't tell you that, of course. For the answer, you must look inside yourself.
If you are a risk taker (I) and / or not satisfied with the current choice (I think the current choice is great), waiting makes sense. I do not know what lever of demand Tesla will withdraw, but I am sure they will do something to sweeten the agreement after the tax credit was lowered on January 1. My guess is that Tesla will offer leasing or find a way to reduce the price of several thousand dollars to a low $ 40,000.
On the other hand, if you value security and hate surprises, and you are happy with the cars that are available now, there is no reason not to lock up a lot and get a bigger tax credit!
You can use my Tesla reference link to get Supercharging free for up to 9 months (6 months if you drive a Tesla car with Tesla) on Model S, Model X, or Model 3. Here's the code: https: // ts. la / paul92237