Resumption growthalthough fragile, which is important for a large portion of the population, a large portion unemployed or turn around with nozzles – there is no breakthrough between politicians and the president's family.
You cannot claim that you do not know. The economy is not even moving forward bankruptcy, like a pessimistic diagnosis that is now baseless by the economic team and economists news, nor will it grow 2.5% to 3%, as Minister Paulo Guedes said at the beginning of the year and also read in the Central Bank Focus Bulletin, which produces weekly background hundreds of banks and consultants. What has changed?
Change perceive on the bill because of the virtual approval of Social Security reform in Congress, implies Bolsonaro is wasting goals made from aid signals in the economy by struggling with a very "strong" shadow of deficit Projected for the next decade, The Economist Intelligence Unit recognizes this week – important in shaping the expectations of foreign investors. The remainder of this less bleak scenario stems from a mixture of recovery cycles with relative separation between economics and politics, increasingly touched by moderate rights in Congress, led by Rodrigo Maia, president of the Chamber.
noticeable improvement in hope. This week, the Ita Asset Management analyst team revised the December 2020 Selic rate estimate to 3.75%. A year ago, said Montero, minimum projections Focus by the end of 2020 placing Selic at 6.50%, with a median of 8.50%. In this simulation, GDP grew by 1% this year and 3% in 2020.
Wild animals are less threatening
Animals of the main deficit the budget (which does not include public debt services) is also less threatening than official data. From a $ 139 billion prayer in 2019, Guedes now speaks $ 80 billion. Less deficits means lower emissions title by the Ministry of Finance – thus lower interest pressure.
OK The Guedes Account considers the flow of money from a pre-salt exploration auction, which is not recurring in revenue, such as tax collection. But it is also valued by 'debt watchers' who live in fear on the market news.
Own the government: 1) is on dismantling parafiscal (BNDES); 2) encourage expectations in a more conscious tone; 3) delegate to Maia the articulation to approve reforms; 4) merged with the Central Bank of the fall of Selic related revisions of the "caution" equipment that was made years ago to curb credit; and 5) payment is paid resource banks in BC as an option for the simultaneous sale and purchase of debt. Okay, what will happen?
1 + 2 3 4 5 = We may be today with GDP growing at margin this semester, in the range of 1.5% to 2% in 12 months (preferred by the comparative base of 2018, due to driver strikes and uncertainty). general election). Credit will be more lax and confidence will be higher. The rest will be a nuisance.
Let's remember that the income available on the pyramid floor is slightly higher than that obtained from the Pnad survey. The informal economy, moreover, grows in a period of recess / stagnation, which is a way of "pore" GDP to finance the shadow of the tax authority. Not surprisingly, job recovery is stronger in the informal sector.
Informality (and "uberizao") explains 86% of the 5 million jobs created since March 2017. economic direct application. In Pnad, the work of car, taxi and van drivers is the fastest growing from the second quarter of 2017 to the second in 2019, reaching 1.1 million employed in this activity (12.1%).
Greater political risk
So far we have arrived and it is important what will happen and what has been scheduled to happen. After the IPCA is bearish and Selic price increases are in Focus, we will see a revised upward GDP, although moderate.
The out-of-curve points in this most unremarkable scenario are: 1) real losses to the dollar, excessive for countries with external deficits below 1% of GDP; 2) the president's strange ability to stumble on his own feet. the main risk to economic outcomes in 2020. To get an idea, pocket bloggers went to Twitter on Wednesday afternoon to talk about reprinting AI5, an act of military dictatorship, depending on the decision of the Supreme Court regarding the 2nd arrest. example. Where did such absence come from in the last few years?