Kirchneris from the province of Buenos Aires cannot believe that Cambiemos has not yet decided about the election. They were convinced that this would be deadly for them, because the election flow of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was practically limited to conurbano and, in the case of the governor of the province of Buenos Aires advancing, candidates would play their election tools in local elections, ignoring national regulations.
Indeed, Cristina exceeded – without a campaign – 40% of the intention to vote in the first and third elections, 24 megamunicipalities that concentrate 10 million people, 63% of the Buenos Aires population, around 26% of national voters.
If the election is to elect a joint president and governor, as usual, the mayors will be drawn by Cristina, who will facilitate positioning in each district. They will put all the meat in saliva in the same campaign, obsessively examine and, incidentally, will help strengthen your prospective opportunities for the president.
If the election takes place, if the province has its own election turn to elect a governor, mayor, provincial legislator, Kirchner candidates will not have great candidates to help them position themselves. And they must mobilize funds and efforts to safeguard the area, because prospective Cambiemos residents, who are grouped under the umbrella of "who do not own land", will be in very good condition to move them from the field.
We change if we have a great candidate, María Eugenia Vidal, the best political leader in the country, that he will devote his time to supporting candidates who want to displace Peronist candidates from key districts such as La Matanza, Hurlingham, Florencio Varela, San Martin, Moreno, Almirante Brown, Berazategui, Avellaneda, Tigre, San Fernando, and several other names. they have leaders who have a very good position in their area.
There are some who claim that voting in the province of Buenos Aires will take place in June, that the Buenosaire Court judges have been consulted and even sounded that in provincial law that must be approved to allow separation will include the abolition of STEP.
However, the decision was not taken. Near the governor said that "it is something that must be seriously analyzed to see whether the split strengthens Mauricio (Macri) for national elections." We are still unclear who supports it clearly, even though we are very clear that kircherismo will do a lot of damage "
The same thing doesn't need to wait too long. Definitions will be at the end of January, in a month, when election experts the Government has evaluated different scenarios, weighing the pros and cons and ordering the steps to be followed. "The possibility of today being in the order of 50%," they said at Casa Rosada, that is, no one knew the slightest about what would eventually be concluded.
The decision was in the hands of Marcos Peña and Jaime Durán Barba. There are only two opinions that Macri will hear or, in fact, one, about his Chief of Staff, who will surely reach his conclusion by talking to the election teacher. In principle, none of these three things were influenced by alchemical elections. They have different methods of winning elections and what makes them afraid, first of all, is to depend on their political wolves and their unlimited negotiations.
How much can be obtained from the laws in the province of Buenos Aires that can allow division? Who do you have to sit to negotiate with? Can anyone guarantee the success of a clean operation or operation, which does not jeopardize the opportunity for Change as "different", "new policy"?
Someone who knew very well about the small table, a good observer from the group who found the fifth leg of an election cat with a very accurate 21st century community diagnosis, told Infobae that "they would only accept something of those characteristics if they were convinced that victory Macri is in serious danger, otherwise they will not accept anything that depends on the coalition's political wing. "
In the Buenosairean government they thought that Peronism no K was more overtaking than overtaking, because that would dilute Cristina's election power and leave in fairer conditions candidates from Alternative Federal, which is not yet known how he will vote, whether through surveys, internally or agreements between governors.
On the "no land" side, candidates to change candidates who believe that 2019 must be all or not at all in territorial matters, because they believe that there is no 2023 if the province does not win and some cities are in the suburbs, they believe that the choice is clear. "Maria Eugenia will get 45%, we will win in a number of districts and Peronism will be so boxed that Macri will finish the election in the first round," they explained happily. They added that "if it is damage to K, it is a benefit for Macri and for Vidal".
A friend of Macri said: "the truth is that Mauricio did not know the best, he wanted to win, and he encouraged himself to think about things he had never imagined, such as the possibility of offering the vice president to Peronis, maybe Juan Manuel Urtubey ". Indeed, Infobae found that the President mentioned the possibility in several dialogues he did outside the red circle, perhaps trying to go beyond that.
The only thing that has a consensus in Change is that there will be no separation of municipal elections. It was an idea held by Sergio Massa, to ensure the re-election of several Peronist candidates without the need to depend on the presidential candidates or the great provinces they currently have. Maybe, later, Vidal can give the trial leader Renovating Front to make him happy, but today seems unworthy.
Meanwhile, the heat of summer seems to be the right opportunity for "Marcos and Jaime" to improve strategy and analyze Macri's real opportunities to win re-election. The first danger to decide on a split was, to be precise, that Macri's nomination was subject to a deminutio capitis, until the capacity decreases before the official launch.
That's risk. Because if everything goes well, why change it? Néstor Kirchner even found a nomination for testimonials in 2009 and is still missing. Can you force reality? Does it make sense to oppose the nature of things? Isn't it more economical to choose waves, currents, and let yourself be carried to the beach by it?
Today the election girl's desk thought about it, something unimaginable last month. That alone is a sign that they are not very clear about where they stand or how the future will come. They need time to think, something that by successive crises is a rare input for the Government's main sword.