The leak is an absurd wound | Departure capita …


Capital flight rose to 27.320 million dollars in 2018. This is the net amount between buying and selling foreign currency from the private sector. This figure is a record in recent years, surpassing 2008 (23,098 million), and is equivalent to almost 6 points of Gross Domestic Product. Capital flight recorded a monthly peak until the third quarter, when a strong devaluation and a rise in interest rates ended by moderating the amount of foreign currency hoarded by the private sector. But the stability of the relative exchange rate in December, with an exchange rate of around 38 pesos, once again aroused interest in dollarization. The Central Bank's foreign exchange report revealed that there were 980 thousand clients who obtained foreign currency last month, around 100,000 more customers than in November. The number of people who sell foreign currencies to take advantage of exchange profits decreases. There are about 570 thousand people offering dollars, compared to almost 700 thousand in November. The net purchase of the dollar in December was 862 million, when in November the figure was half (408 million dollars), even though in the same month the previous year reached 2,700 million.

The strong flow of foreign currency from the economy is not only due to personal hoarding. Tourism is another source of external red in 2018. In the exchange balance the entity responsible for Guido Sandleris stated that last year there was a deficit of 6800 million dollars for travel and card purchases abroad. population. In December, red in the tourism sector was 313 million dollars, with a year-on-year decline of 49 percent. That figure is also below the average monthly deficit recorded during 2018. This lower dollar output is explained by the effect of an increase in exchange rates, which increases the cost of tourism abroad. A clear example is observed on a trip to Brazil. This summer, 70 percent of individuals who travel to the Brazilian coast experience setbacks.

In December, dollarization was not only returned from private clients. In the Central document it is stated that banks increase the general position of change (that is, ownership of doll assets) at 1597 million dollars and they find it at 6576 million dollars. Banking entities, although they gained in recent months important profits with Leliq, began to increase the level of their assets in foreign currencies with a protection factor. Investment funds also decide to donate a portion of their investment. December is the ninth consecutive month in which net capital outflows are recorded through portfolio investments. The net outflow to disarm the peso is 650 million.

The Central Bank celebrated the increase in international reserves in 2018. "Reserves increased 14.613 million dollars, ending in December 65.806 million," he said. These figures are possible, despite strong capital flows and exchange rates, thanks to loans from the Monetary Fund, the Chinese Central Bank and other institutions. "In December, revenue from currency exchange with China reached 8700 million dollars," the entity said. He added that "the disbursement of the third installment of standby credit agreed with the IMF was also recorded at 7640 million. There was also a net profit of $ 1,000 million with other international organizations." Last year the Central Bank lost a large amount of reserves because it intervened in the foreign exchange market. The entity is unsuccessful and must use additional currencies, especially from the IMF. Monetary authorities cannot really buy currency throughout the year and the increase in reserves is only explained by an increase in foreign currency debt.

The new monetary program implemented since October limits the ability of the Central Bank to participate again in the exchange market. The IMF does not want to repeat 2018 mistakes and practically eliminates the margin of the monetary authority to go out and buy and sell currencies. Central, for example, can only earn up to 50 million dollars per day to try to move exchange rates in the non-intervention zone. Per month you cannot buy more than 1000 million dollars. This is a very small number if one takes into account the total volume of purchases in the exchange market. If you have to sell because runaway happens, I can only do it up to 150 million per day, when last year there were days when the market came to ask for 1500 million in one day.


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