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The dollar fell 3.4% after BCRA withdrew $ 106,300 million in circulation in three days




The Central returns to take the peso from the market (closing the week absorbing $ 105,000 million) without impacting the level; for Sandleris, the peso is still "overreacting" to shocks Source: Archive

The

dollar

it seems to confirm yesterday that, with less peso surplus on the road, the possibility of maintaining a bullish route is complicated.
The average price dropped by 1.9% more (from $ 38.46 to $ 37.72 for wholesale and
ranging from $ 39.54 to $ 38.80 for the public) at the end of the business round is shorter than usual (by G-20, activities are concluded two hours before) and after highlighting

Central Bank

(BCRA) its commitment to monetary policy which is very contractive not only in operatives, but also in gestural.

Thus, tickets scored the third wheel in successive declines and the average accumulation retreated 3.4% in that period, after coming to operate very close to $ 40 on Monday and threatening to return to the maximum level previously touched. starting the Sandleris era. That did not stop it, however, closing the week (today's market does not operate for national holidays) with a 0.2% increase and accumulated in November a 5% recovery.

The decline began when the monetary entity decided to double its efforts to withdraw the peso from the market, after the previous week's easing test for December (high seasonal months in demand for money) was carried out, allowing the impact of disarming

Lebac

(who allowed $ 120,000 million) to add an extra $ 78,000 million injection to renew part of the expired liquidity (Leliq) debt.

But after verifying that this relaxation encouraged an average jump of almost 7% in currencies in just two days, he decided to file a trial for another occasion.

"This week they won $ 469.267 million in Leliq and gave a new letter for $ 583.867 million, that is, absorbing more than $ 105,000 million without higher fees, which averaged from 61.40 to 60.75% per year free: Leliq's stock reached $ 718,711 million and the bill to pay interest, which is $ 6300 million this week, exceeds $ 9500 million next week, "said financial analyst Christian Buteler.

"This week, unlike the previous one, was clearly a contraction, with BCRA absorbing about half of what was expanded in the previous week, and the dollar retreating part of what had advanced even with the reference level slightly down. To show that to reduce levels without impact on dollars, BCRA must be tedious with handling the amount of peso, "observes economist Gabriel Caamaño, from the Ledesma Study.

The strong jump from the bill between last Friday and Monday sparked alarm in the Government, which began to enjoy "honeys" from a stable market (the end of the flight stopped the fall of Macri's image) and was ready to use it by persuading oil companies to reduce fuel prices, given falling prices international crude oil, although domestic tax rates are increasing in the coming days.

The easing test aims to achieve a higher level of reduction after BCRA is released (next week) to remove the 60% floor which is preventively determined to show commitment to its objectives. And produce in this way the feeling that the worst crisis is being abandoned.

But the dollar's reaction forced BCRA to review the plan. "Inflation remains high and our currency is still overreacting to internal and external shocks," was admitted the day before yesterday

Guido Sandleris

, when exposing on the Council of the Americas. "We are aware of the risks facing our economy, so we will only increase the monetary base if conditions permit," he said, leaving doubts that he was utilizing the prerogative he had in the agreement with

The IMF

to expand the monetary base by 6% in December. "We will only do it if we see that increasing demand for money is not what we planned," he said.

Both the G-20 helped rebound debt obligations

Bond of

Argentine debt

they failed to recover despite signs that the United States Federal Reserve had issued it in recent days, acknowledging that it could stop the policy of a slight but sustained increase in the benchmark interest rate for the economy. "Requests did not appear, so they fell 25 cents in the middle and 50 in the long section of the curve, so this week they collected losses of 1.5 to 2%," Sebastián Cisa said in a report. , from SBS Group. Due to this weakness, the country's risk level remained above 700 points (closed at 704), despite the fact that the floor indicator (set by the rate that produced US 10-year bonds) fell again by 1% yesterday. , at 3.03%.


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