According to a well-known consultant, next year will not have good expectations.
December 29, 2018
The level of economic activity in 2018 shows negative behavior since the second quarter and changes in this trend are not expected in the short term.
This is demonstrated by the Economic and Regional consultant (E & R), estimating that the first quarter of 2019 will follow the same path and will also be "complicated by the level of activity that will continue to suffer."
"Then, in the best scenario, the best that can be expected is for the economy to stop falling and positive (lukewarm) numbers appear starting in the second quarter of 2019," said the report's author.
However, "it will be more statistical than the real improvement for companies, that is, companies (especially SMEs) will not experience a sustained increase in their thermal sensations," they said.
However, "if in the second half of the summer there is a new round of exchanges and dollars, inflation, inflation expectations and interest rates will rise again, the activity level may continue to fall further to 2019".
"Our baseline scenario estimates and projects variations in GDP around -3.0% (2018) and -1.5% (2019)." In this case, we must consider that if GDP is closed this year at -3.0%, said performance will leave a statistical obstacle of -3.1%, which implies that statistical backpacks are very difficult to counteract and overcome next year. "
According to his estimates, the activity level, by the end of 2019, will be around 3.7 percentage points below the activity level at the end of 2015.
We must consider that the level of activity has no place to "survive" to experience a strong jump or recovery in 2019, "estimates E & R specialists.
They warned that "credit to the private sector will remain scarce, interest rates will continue to be high during 2019, even in the most optimistic scenarios."
"On the other hand, if a new exchange round appears and the dollar returns to leap (a phenomenon that cannot be ruled out), inflation expectations will rise again, inflation will surge again and interest rates will still end at a higher threshold. now and registered last October, "they added.
For the Economy & Region, "in this scenario, there will be less credit and more expensive than at present, the activity level will suffer more than projected."