Survey: for the red circle, Cristina Kirchner only has a 4% chance of winning – 12/27/2018


Confidence or desire? A survey of 240 opinion leaders – a red circle consisting of leaders, entrepreneurs, and journalists, among others – increased there is almost no chance for Cristina Kirchner to return to the presidency. The question, perhaps the most interesting in this study, asks about "which selection scenario do you think is most likely for 2019?" The variant "CFK will be elected president" is the last with 4%.

This survey is from Polyarchy Consultant, a company that historically worked for Macrismo and gained prestige for some symbolic achievements, such as Francisco de Narváez's victory in 2009 against Néstor Kirchner in the province of Buenos Aires. Like in previous years, in December he surveyed opinion leaders.

Survey, according to 35 page report, made between the 4th and 17th of this month, so on line, between "governors and mayors, national and provincial ministers, legislators, entrepreneurs, journalists and communicators, academics and researchers from public and private universities, consultants and professionals."

As detailed in the presentation, "this research is knowledge oriented the vision of a local company about the most relevant problems of national events. "Who do they consider" opinion leaders "?" Do people who, because of their position, knowledge or resources, have ability to influence sports about public opinion attitudes and behavior ".

The results are distributed in half a dozen chapters, such as general state of the country, economic conditions, the image of the Government and other leaders, and the atmosphere of the election.

This is the main result.

Country and economic situation

The company's eyes are estimated to be negative in this area. "Evaluate the general situation of the country", based on the case, that compared to Cristina's years where this research was also conducted (2008 and 2012). By 2018, the display is 45% "negative", 45% "normal" and only 9% "positive". Surprise changes related to 2017, when the economy has grown: there, "positive" reaches 69% and there is only 9% "negative".

Something similar happened in "evaluating the country situation vs. a year ago". This changed from 85% "better" in 2017 (compared to 2016) to 84% "worse" this year (compared to the previous one). This is also interesting for what and who identified the red circle as "the main problem of the country today". Last year was "poverty"; Now, the "ruling class".

Comfort for the Government in these matters: Although 55% consider the country's economic situation "negative", 58% believe that next year will be "better than 2018".

Another strange point is economic estimates of opinion leadersOn average, they expect a 0.4% increase in GDP, the dollar to $ 47.6 at the end of 2019 and inflation of 28%. They start from the problem: in their 2016 and 2017 predictions they explode like the Government. Will they guess more this time?

Version 2018 of estimates has new question. "What is the probability that the country will meet the fiscal, monetary and economic objectives agreed with the IMF?" Here the average is 63%.

Pictures of officials and leaders

The most relevant figures from this chapter:

Government approval fell from 87% in 2017 to 49% this year. And the disapproval rose from 10% to 46%.

– The national minister is considered by the establishment on "best performance" is still Rogelio Frigerio (Interior, 31% mentions); Carolina Stanley rose from fourth place to second place (Social Development, 14%) and Patricia Bullrich, from eighth to third (Security, 13%).

– In the general picture of the leader governor María Eugenia Vidal heads up (70% positive), followed by Buenos Aires boss Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (68%) and head of the Court, Carlos Rosenkrantz (44%).

– Of the 10 leaders measured, It is surprising that Pope Francis is the seventh, with 29% positive image. Only Chief of Staff Marcos Peña (21%), leaders FR Sergio Massa and Cristina (both close to 3%) were worse.

– Among federal Peronists, who 32% of those consulted in the red circle chose former minister Roberto Lavagna as "the best position to lead the PJ No-K". Followed by Juan Manuel Urtubey from Salta, with 18%.

Election scenario

It's at the end of the report, it was approached in an interesting way election scenario for 2019. On the one hand, when someone asks about the probability that Macri is a candidate for Change, there is little doubt for the red circle that it will be like this: the average reaches 78%. With Cristina, on average it dropped to 64%.

Then he explores the opportunities for candidates and different spaces to win the presidential election. And you see the dominant is clear that, for the establishment, Cambiemos leaders will.

First, the opportunity is analyzed that Macri, Cristina and Peronism will win the presidential election.

– The current president averages 61%. Most give you opportunities between average and high to win.

– Cristina, on the other hand, averages 29%. This is the lowest number in this sense and nothing gives a high chance of winning.

– Peronist no. K has an average probability of winning just above the former president: 31%.

But when companies are asked about four scenarios at once and they have to choose one, 74% select "Macri will be re-selected". Two alternatives reach 5%: "The other Cambiemos leader will be elected president" and "Non-K Peronists will be elected president". And, as quoted at the beginning of the note, only 4% tend to "CFK be elected president." Doubt is heard again: belief or desire?


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