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Private studies detected that the lowest decline in GDP in October did not continue in November



It is true that in the measurement of the Orlando Ferreres y Asociados consultant, the statistical effect compares with the second highest peak activity in more than 10 years.

"Eleven month results are very conditioned by
industry dynamics, activity segments that reported a decline of more than 9%. Next contractions suffered in the prominent commercial category (down 10.8% in connection with November 2017), which was influenced mainly by the decline in wholesale branches, which suffered not only lower national production levels, but also lower income from imports, "said the private study economist.

These two items, which cannot be compensated by reactivating the newly started agricultural sector, explain that commercial activities are among the three most recessive sectors in November.

On the contrary, though with a very modest rate of increase, located on agriculture, financial activities and extractive industries; and virtually public and private service branches and public administration stagnated at the previous year's level.

The persistence of high interest rates caused by the monetary policy astringent of the Central Bank, along with the limited capacity of companies to approve wage increases so as not to affect the level of employment in their factories, will determine that December also closes with a negative sign, although with a very heterogeneous picture as observed in November, as reflected in the labor expectation survey of the National Labor Secretariat.


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