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Financial week: the peso rejects the devaluation that appears, but the country's risk index rises again



With an echo of a new episode "commercial war " between the United States and China still on the stock market, Argentine assets show healthy behavior in the last week, if we take that into account in the world red number and general loss.

Perhaps it dollars and US Treasury bonds has become a posture faster, considering its nature as a protection asset before geopolitical tendencies. On average, Wall Street shares fell 0.7% in the week.

that emerging currencies suffer. In Brazil, the greenback rose 3.8% in the week, from 3.95 to 4,10 reais, close to the note Last September. In China rose 1.3%, from 6.82 to 6.91 yuan. Regarding Turkish lira, up 0.8 percent.

In this framework, the An increase of 20 cents, or 0.4%, was experienced by the dollar in Argentina can be calculated as a success from the perspective of the Central Bank. Currency closed at $ 45 on the wholesale market and $ 46.10 for the public in the bank average.

Central Bank don't have to make a sale cash. The dollar is provided by the Ministry of Finance – with a value of USD 60 million per day – and liquidation of exporters they fulfill the request. BCRA intervention in futures and markets high interest rates Liquidity Letter (Leliq) equipped to stabilize the exchange market.

"With respect to interest rates: Leliq continues to drop with drops and the average level cannot penetrate the annual floor 71%. In addition, BCRA remains committed to the Base Monetary target in May, which adds to the pressure on the path of a decline in benchmark interest rates, "said the report by the Central Bank. CEPA (Center for Political Economy in Argentina).

After 11 sequential wheels in low, the monetary policy level ends the week 71,476% per year.

Regarding action, they reduced 0.4% in pesos for a weekwhile the panel is leading Merval S & P ByMA (Exchange and Argentine Market) ends close to 33,300 points.

In dollars, a decline for the average Argentine stock 0.9% from the previous Friday, the dynamics reflected in ADR quotes from Argentine companies in New York.

"We have fall in love with someone else. The stock market, for devaluation, is far more. And from ridiculous prices are measured in dollars, very close to the basis of alignment with historical lows, began to react, turn around ", explained Jorge Fedio, technical analyst Clave Bursátil.

More visible is setback of state bonds: some problems in the dollar still generate almost 18% per year. It is true that they accompanied the way down from the debt that appeared, but it was clear this asset will be the last to recover prices, when some shares leave the minimum observed at the end of April.

Economist Gustavo Ber assume that the weakness of Argentina's fixed income adheres to thatdiverse reading which leaves an exchange of half of the double bonus for Lelink even with public participation, because most of it private investors decide to retain their ownership ".

US Treasury bonds strengthened against strong demand for protection, as profitability fell from 2.455% annually on Friday 10 to 2.394% per year. This movement also widens the gap with the title that appears and helps explain A 5.3% increase in Argentine Country Risk, to 946 points basic

Tons of soybeans in Chicago Drilling USD 300 tons; and at the Plaza de Rosario, measured in pesos, it's the same as adding a discount of about 28% for deductions.

This one cut by almost 10% in 2019 for harvest value Argentina has an impact on the country's commercial and fiscal income. "With almost 57 million tons harvested, they are estimated losses between 2,400 and 3,000 million dollars for producer groups, when they are faced with a decline in market prices for their production, "he said. Invecq Economic Consultant.


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