For market benchmarks, next year's increase will be in line with the increase shown by the dollar, crude oil and inflation
The announcement of the increase in electricity and public transport rates announced Thursday at Treasury Palace made it difficult for economists to think of a balance between lower inflation seeking and a quieter dollar bet for next year.
The gradual increase in transportation will reach 38% between December and March. In terms of electricity, in August 2019, the confirmed increase will accumulate a jump of 55% compared to the beginning of 2019, while the variation in gas levels will be 35% for April.
"The combination of the three components anticipates that by 2019 the regulated rates will increase by about 40%, with the total inflation impact being around 4 percentage points and marking resistance to disinflation, "explained Federico Furiase, director of Eco Go.
In this context, It is known that naphtha can increase by 25% more during the first semester of 2019.
The Secretary of Energy Nation, which until Friday ordered Javier Iguacel, believes that with ten increases to register fuel this year, it has attacked most of the backwardness that shows this sector.
Meanwhile, YPF state executives shared a diagnosis: they closed 2018 with price increases that managed to summarize arrears that they kick and end with a balance point that will allow facing 2019 in other ways, according to Profile's slogan.
Against this table, market references estimate that next year lThe increase that will be verified will be more in line with the rise in the dollar, crude oil and how inflation can move.
A paper by the Central Republic of the Fuel and Allied Suppliers Federation (Fecac) sets out a step to estimate how much naphtha prices can move in 2019.
Consider the value of future contracts of dollars (Rofex) and Brent oil (Nymex) and adjustments to tax inflation for fuels and carbon dioxide, and assuming that biofuel prices remain unchanged at levels set during November, the theoretical value of liquid fuels will increase 25% until next June.
"I think we will run behind inflation next year, but what is positive is that we will experience a more stable increase. We will not experience the delays that we achieved in 2018. From the moment of price release, which is October 2017, prices are stable, but then all indices soared, the dollar surged, oil soared and we were very late I think 2019 will be a logical and predictable year of improvement", Analyzing Gabriel Bornoroni, president of the entity that has its headquarters in Cordoba.
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