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Due to the increase in the dollar and greater debt, public debt reaches 95% of GDP – 12/29/2018



For devaluation of pesos and greater debt, that internal and external public debt in pesos and foreign currencies, add to Last September 30 US $ 307,656 million, equivalent to 95.4% of GDP. If you enter what is still owed for PBI coupons, the amount will reach US $ 320,955 million and jump to 99.5% of GDP. In other words, national public debt – without provincial debt and BCRA – represents all GDP.

Official figures come from the "Preliminary Report" of the Secretary of Finance, released in the last hours.

A year ago, public debt was 53.41% of GDP and a GDP coupon of 55.8%. The leap occurs because of a sharp devaluation reducing the value in dollars of GDP and debt in pesos. At the end of 2017, GDP was worth US $ 540,000 million and 9 months later, Finance placed it at US $ 322,500 million. 40% reduction in dollars.

For this reason, even though the Government continues to borrow in pesos and in foreign currencies, which are recorded in dollars, debt has almost remained at the same level as last year and has even declined in relation to the second quarter. But with details that are not less: in 12 months, debt with public institutions is devalued in dollars, such as with ANSeS, in U $ 21,864 million, because it has a larger proportion of assets in pesos, and debt increases with personal funds (US $ 8,388 million) and international organizations (15,424 million), especially for the IMF's first disbursement.

In the June document in support of understanding with Argentina, the IMF anticipated that public debt could rise this year from 57.1 to 64.5% of GDP, and then start the way down. And in the "bad scenario" it can be closed at the end of the year at 68.6% of GDP. In the second review, in December, the IMF raised the estimate for the end of 2018 to 78% of GDP, discounting that the decline in the value of the dollar between September and December was more than compensating for greater debt with the international body itself.

In proportion to GDP, total public debt recorded an upward trend since 2011 due to the combined effect of economic stagnation, taking more debt and increasing the value of the dollar. Without PBI coupons, from 38.9% in 2011 to 52.6% in 2015, to 53.3% in 2016, 57.1% in 2017 and now in the third quarter of 2018 to 95.4%.

If the comparison is extended at the end of 2005, after the first debt swap, when the amount reaches US $ 154,270 million, public debt in dollars doubled: growing by US $ 153,386 million.

In pesos, in one year the total is doubled, which causes the State to collect more pesos – through more taxes and reduced costs for public works, salaries, pensions, among others – and taking more debt, in pesos and pesos. dollars, to meet interest payments and debt maturity.

In turn, the debt becomes "hate". Of the total, 79% are contracted in foreign currencies (such as dollars or euros) and 21% in national currencies. In 2005 the proportion was 58.9 / 41.1%. In 2015, the proportion was 69.3 / 30.7%.

The Ministry of Finance report details that, if considered by creditors, US $ 120,705 million -39.2% of the debt of US $ 307,656 million – is debt to the Central Bank, ANSeS and other public bodies.

With international organizations, such as the IMF, IDB or World Bank, the amount reaches US $ 43,219 million, 14% of the total. By representing the private sector 44.6% or US $ 143,733 million in various financial instruments such as Bonds and Letters.


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